Rupee likely to remain rangebound amid mixed cues; USDINR pair to trade sideways in this range
The Indian Rupee is likely to trade in a rangebound manner on Wednesday amid mixed cues. The range for the day as RBI ensures to keep rupee within 80 levels is 79.70 to 80.00, according to forex analysts. Any trigger may lead to a breakout and set a target of 80.50-81.00 levels. In the previous session, rupee depreciated against the US dollar, tracking a strong American currency in the overseas market and rising crude oil prices. At the interbank foreign exchange market, the local unit opened at 79.85 and saw an intra-day high of 79.81 and a low of 79.90 against the greenback before it finally ended at 79.88, down 4 paise over its previous close.
Anindya Banerjee, VP, Currency Derivatives & Interest Rate Derivatives at Kotak Securities
“USDINR spot closed flat, as RBI intervention and FPI flows kept the dollar demand well filled. Rupee has been an outperformer against a basket of emerging market and developed market currencies, since mid-August. Fall in oil prices and FPI flows have helped. However, upside risk remains intact as US Dollar Index and USDCNY remains in uptrend. We expect a range of 79.60 and 80.30 on spot over the near term.”
Gaurang Somaiya, Forex & Bullion Analyst, Motilal Oswal Financial Services
“Rupee traded in a narrow range for the past few sessions despite volatility in the dollar against its major crosses. The dollar eased and yields at first fell as data showing slower economic growth raised initial hopes the Federal Reserve will back off its aggressive hiking of interest rates at its central bank symposium at Jackson Hole. Sales of new U.S. single-family homes plunged to a six and half year low in July. Powell on Fiday is likely to balance the message by stressing that Fed will remain committed to bringing inflation down and that upcoming policy decisions will depend on incoming data.”
“Earlier the euro fell to fresh two-decade lows after data showed euro zone business activity contracted for a second straight month in August as the war in Ukraine is expected to ensure the outlook for the European economy remains bleak. Today, focus will be on the durable goods data from the US and better-than-expected number could keep the dollar supported at lower level. We expect the USDINR(Spot) to trade sideways and quote in the range of 79.40 and 80.05.”
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Amit Pabari, MD, CR Forex Advisors
“Today, the Indian Rupee is expected to open on a calmer note near 79.85 and is likely to trade in a range of 79.60 to 80.10. The silent days for the Rupee signal upcoming higher volatility. Factors are still gloomy for Rupee, but a halt in FPIs selling and RBI’s intolerance of volatility and 80 levels helped it to remain on a mixed note. Moving forward, a recovery in oil prices on possible OPEC+ supply tightening, and a rise in US yields ahead of the Jackson Hole symposium may not allow it to remain an outlier. In nutshell, as long as the pair is below the All-Time-High of 80.05, it is expected to trade on a calmer note with a potential range of 79.30 to 80.05. Any single trigger will be enough for it to give a breakout and to set a target of 80.50-81.00 levels.”
Anil Kumar Bhansali, Head of Treasury, Finrex Treasury Advisors
“As oil rises to $ 100 per barrel Indian rupee to open at 79.85 after it rose to 79.70 in NDF overnight. The Euro also went to parity with the dollar but soon fell to 0.9950 thus keeping the dollar index nearer to 100. All eyes are on what Mr. Powell would say on 26th August I Jackson Holes meeting. US new home sales fell to 6.5 years low as the world economies grapple with recession and rising inflation. The range for the day as RBI ensures to keep rupee within 80 levels is 79.70 to 80.00. Exporters may keep selling above 79.90 while importers may buy any good dips they get.”
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